As tech giants chase AI trillions, nobody is even asking concerning the broader macro impacts

For the time being, the market is pricing in all of the upside impacts of AI and robotics and making an attempt to suss out the winners. The subsequent dialog would be the losers.

• Nvidia is the most-valuable firm on the earth
• Elon Musk mentioned: “Robotic taxis makes Tesla a few $5 trillion firm… The
  Optimus Robotic, I feel, makes Tesla a $25 trillion firm.”
• Microsoft is spending $80 billion on information facilities this yr alone
• Robotics firms have was meme shares

The multiples of all of the tech shares are sky excessive on the expectation that they are going to generate unbelievable margins attributable to automation, AI and robotics. I agree fully however these margins might want to come from someplace and the apparent wrongdoer is human labor.

Now Elon Musk says plenty of nonsense however he talked about 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040, which is greater than all the inhabitants of the planet. Jensen Huang this week additionally talked about how we’re close to a ‘ChatGPT’ second for robotics, which I feel is a certainty provided that generative AI permits them to see and work together with the world like by no means earlier than.

The knee-jerk response would be the previous industrial revolution trope round luddites and folks discovering completely different jobs. Perhaps they are going to however even a brief interval of +eight% unemployment within the US could be extremely disruptive and I count on it is going to be a lot greater than that.

“I am not afraid of that in any respect,” Sam Altman mentioned concerning job losses. “In
reality, I feel that is good. I feel that is the way in which of progress, and we’ll
discover new and higher jobs.”

OK, Sam, what would possibly these jobs be?

To place Musk’s market cap remark into perspective, all the market cap of the S&P 500 proper now could be $52 trillion. To get to half of that, the earnings would must be taken from someplace — different firms or individuals’s pocket books. If individuals do not have jobs, the place does that cash come from?

Now I haven’t got the solutions to those questions — although I’ve some concepts — what disturbs me is that hardly anybody is even speaking about this with any form of rationality or honesty.

This text was written by Adam Button at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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