Citigroup Warns: Sanctions, Tight Provides, and U.S. Coverage to Drive Oil Costs Increased…

Citigroup lately raised its 2025 oil worth forecast, reflecting the influence of geopolitical dangers on provide and pricing. The financial institution expects Brent crude to common $67 per barrel, however current spot costs already exceed these estimates, fueled by strong winter demand and sanctions-driven constraints​.

Whereas Citi anticipates some stabilization later within the yr, provide dangers stay a key concern, particularly as U.S. insurance policies and sanctions proceed to affect the market stability. The fast results of sanctions and logistical bottlenecks have created a supportive backdrop for elevated oil costs within the brief to medium time period​​.

President Trump’s Coverage Stance

President Trump’s dedication to boosting U.S. vitality independence provides one other layer of complexity. His administration’s deal with accelerating home oil manufacturing and loosening environmental rules goals to boost the nation’s vitality place. Nonetheless, these measures could take time to offset international provide disruptions​​.

Trump’s current feedback on imposing additional sanctions on Russia, coupled with efforts to dealer peace within the Ukraine battle, recommend continued provide pressures. His vitality agenda, centered on maximizing U.S. manufacturing, offers a long-term stabilizing pressure however does little to alleviate the fast constraints driving costs greater.

Outlook for Oil Costs: Bulls in Management