Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 142 bps

• ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 140 bps

• BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 138 bps

• BoC: 80 bps (91% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 172 bps

• RBA: 6 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 61 bps

• RBNZ: 53 bps (87% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 213 bps

• SNB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 73 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 8 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 35 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.



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