Ubaidahsan Americas FX information wrap 20 Feb. The USD strikes decrease. USDJPY falls to new 2025 low.

• Main US indices shut decrease however retraces losses
• US crude oil futures settled $72.57
• Extra from Musalem: Expects inflation to wane however there are upside dangers
• White Home nat sec advisory Waltz: Zelensky must return to desk on crucial minerals
• MUFG: JPY now the best-performing G10 foreign money in 2025, staying quick EUR/JPY
• Morgan Stanley G10 FX outlook: AUD, JPY, GBP, NZD, CAD, CHF
• US sells 30-year TIPS at 2.403% vs 2.40% WI
• Zelenskiy:Ukraine is prepared for sturdy and helpful settlement w/US on investments &insecurity
• Extra Musalem: Productiveness velocity up is reaching its pattern
• US Center East envoy Witkoff: Trump plan for Gaza shouldn’t be an eviction plan for Palestinians
• St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem: Assurance inflation is returning to 2% earlier than coverage modifications
• Weekly crude oil stock construct of four.633M vs estimate Three.144M
• European indices are closing the day with combined outcomes
• Atlanta Fed Bostic Does not anticipate new burst of inflation, although widespread uncertainty
• Feds Goolsbee: PCE shouldn’t be more likely to be as sobering because the CPI numbers
• EU Client confidence flesh for February -13.6 versus -14.Zero estimate
• Main index for January -Zero.Three% versus -Zero.1% estimate
• GEOPOLITICs as we speak: Zelenskiy meets with US envoy Kellogg. Putin talks with Saudi about oil
• Trump: BALANCE BUDGET NOW??? LETS GIVE IT S A SHOT. LOTS OF MONEY COMING IN FROM TARIFFS.
• Canada January producer worth index +1.6% m/m vs +Zero.2% anticipated
• Philadelphia Fed Enterprise index for February 18.1 vs 20.Zero estimate
• Canada January new housing worth index -Zero.1% vs -Zero.1% prior
• US preliminary jobless claims 219Ok vs 215Ok estimate
• ForexLive European FX information wrap: USD/JPY flirts with break of 150.00 degree
• US Treasury secretary Bessent: I do not need others to control their currencies
• ECB’s Simkus: I agree with expectations of three extra cuts in 2025

The USD fell vs all the main currencies with the autumn vs the JPY (-1.21%) , and the NZD (-1.03%), the most important movers. The buck fell the least vs the CAD (-Zero.44%) . The greenback index (DXY) fell -Zero.75%, its third largest decline since November 2024.

The USDJPY moved to a brand new low for the yr and to the bottom degree going again to December. At session lows, the pair moved to a key swing space between 149.08 and 149.39. The 50% midpoint of the transfer up from September is available in at 149.22 between the realm. That space can be key going into the brand new buying and selling day.

For the USDCHF< the pair moved to check the low of the buying and selling vary going again to mid-December between Zero.8965 to Zero.9196 (see chart under). That degree can be a key barometer for consumers and sellers within the new buying and selling day. Transferring under could be extra bearish. Keep above and the pair can bounce from the two week decline.

The GBPUSD stretched increased as we speak and at session highs examined the pairs key 100 day MA at 1.2660. That degree can be a key barometer for the pair within the new buying and selling day.

The AUDUSD is buying and selling at it is highest degree since mid-December and is shifting towards key technical targets outlined by the 38.2% of the transfer down from the September excessive at Zero.64139 after which the falling 100 day MA at Zero.6421. The present worth is at Zero.6394 after buying and selling as excessive as Zero.6404.

US charges had been decrease for the day though yields are close to the center of the times buying and selling vary. Trying on the yield curve:

• 2 yr four.269%, -Zero.four bps
• 5 yr four.346%, -2.5 bps
• 10 yr four.505%, -Three.Zero bps
• 30 yr four.746%, -1.7 bps

Considerations in regards to the affect of tariffs, DOGE layoffs and US development can also be weighing on the buck.

There have been three Fed members who spoke as we speak together with Fed’s Bostic, Musalem and Goolsbee. They tended to be cautious though Fed’s Bostic did nonetheless see 2 cuts between now and the tip of the yr.

A abstract of their feedback:

• St. Louis Fed President Musalem insists inflation should present clear progress towards 2% earlier than coverage modifications. Whereas he expects inflation to say no, dangers stay tilted upward, and protracted inflation may warrant additional tightening. He flagged stalling productiveness features and broader financial dangers, together with tariffs, which he views as one-time worth will increase needing additional examine. Musalem sees modestly restrictive coverage as mandatory to achieve the two% goal however cautions that it’s going to take time. Regardless of uncertainty, development stays resilient, and confidence in inflation’s decline is essential earlier than contemplating fee cuts.
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to say no towards 2% however acknowledges uncertainty and volatility within the information. Whereas the labor market is easing, it stays secure, supporting the Fed’s twin mandate. He nonetheless anticipates two fee cuts however warns that outlook may change. Bostic highlights enterprise considerations over deregulation, tariffs, and immigration and notes some companies could move import taxes to customers. He stresses the Fed should keep away from steadiness sheet instability and is reviewing its employment framework. Bostic sees coverage as reasonably restrictive however stays cautious about inflation dangers earlier than adjusting charges.
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expects PCE inflation to be milder than CPI, indicating a secure outlook. He sees regular employment and tight credit score circumstances however stays cautious about provide shocks, significantly from tariffs. Whereas 2018 tariffs had little inflation affect, he warns that bigger disruptions, like COVID-era shocks, might be extra regarding.

US shares opened decrease and stayed within the crimson for all the day, however bounced late taking the indices comfortably off the lows for the day:

• Dow industrial common fell -450.94 factors or -1.01% at 44176.65. Nevertheless, at session lows, the index was down -677.43 factors.
• S&P index fell -26.63 factors or -Zero.43% at 6117.52. At session lows, the index was down -59.56 factors.
• NASDAQ index fell -93.89 factors or -Zero.47% at 19962.36. At session lows the index was all the way down to 61.23 factors
• Russell 2000-20.71 factors or -Zero.91% at 2261.74. At session lows the index was down -32.34 factors.

Crude oil rose $Zero.41 or Zero.57% at $72.81 after bouncing off the 200-hour MA close to the low for the day at $71.76.

Gold is buying and selling up $6.16 or Zero.21% at $2939.32. The excessive worth for the day i. Nched nearer to the $3000 degree at $2954.94

The value of Bitcoin moved increased and traded to the very best degree since February 14 at $98,758.

TGIF to all.

This text was written by Emma Wang at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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