Pure Fuel Information: Bearish Forecast Builds as Tariff Dangers Cloud LNG Demand Outlook…

LNG Exports Stay Agency, However Demand Threat Lingers

Regardless of macro headwinds, LNG exports held robust. Web flows to US export terminals reached 16.three Bcf/d on Friday, up 9.1% week-over-week. This stays a key space of help for costs. Merchants are additionally watching US storage ranges, which BloombergNEF tasks will likely be 10% under the five-year common by summer time—retaining bullish positioning alive whilst near-term drivers stay blended.

Storage Injection Caps Upside Regardless of Provide Tightness

EIA information confirmed a +57 Bcf injection for the week ended April four, broadly according to expectations however properly above the five-year common of +17 Bcf for this era. Storage stays 2.1% under the five-year norm and 19.eight% underneath final 12 months, signaling tight underlying provide. Nonetheless, the dimensions of the injection gave the market little motive to rally.

Dry gasoline manufacturing held at 106.2 Bcf/d, up four.7% y/y, whereas demand reached 76.7 Bcf/d, up 11.four% y/y. Electrical energy output rose four.05% y/y, suggesting agency baseline energy burn, however not but summer-driven demand.

Combined Climate and Modest Rig Uptick Add Stress

Climate outlooks are impartial to barely bearish. The Commodity Climate Group sees above-normal temps within the West and seasonal circumstances elsewhere from April 16–20—limiting late-season heating demand. Baker Hughes reported a rise of 1 rig, bringing the gasoline rig rely to 97, nonetheless traditionally low however off current lows.

Market Forecast: Barely Bearish Bias Forward

With commerce pressure clouding demand outlooks and climate providing no near-term help, nat-gas appears weak to additional draw back. LNG flows and tight storage stay bullish anchors, however except a climate or export catalyst emerges, value motion might proceed to float decrease within the close to time period.

Extra Data in our Financial Calendar.