Canadian journey to US exhibits exhibits a steep decline

Canada has been awash with discuss of US boycotts for the reason that begin of the commerce battle. It is a theme that is consumed the Canadian election, which is able to happen on Monday.

What’s more durable to quantify is the precise influence on spending and journey. Immediately, Statistics Canada launched its cross-border report for February and it exhibits an actual influence, although not as giant as touted in some experiences.

A viral information story final month indicated that Canadian air bookings had been down 70% however this quantity is way more modest. That is no shock as Air Canada stated in late March that its US reserving curve was down 10% over the following six months.

The unhealthy information is that auto and same-day journey is extra indicative of real-time selections, as air journey is commonly booked months prematurely. It suggests we’ll see poor Canada-to-US journey in March and past.

Maybe a caveat is that February climate was notably harsh and that would have curbed cross-border street journeys. Toronto noticed 73.four cm of snow in February 2025 – roughly double the conventional quantity and the Feb 13-16 interval was notably harsh. All through Feb 2025, Atmosphere Canada issued quite a few winter storm warnings, blizzard advisories, and excessive chilly warnings in some areas. One other system on Feb 28, 2025 introduced ~15 cm extra snow to Ontario. Examine that to Feb 2024, which noticed no main storms.

Climate alone in Feb 2025 possible induced a 5–15% discount in cross-border journeys, or round one-third of the same-day auto journey decline. Alongside these strains, US auto journeys to Canada had been additionally down 6.5% y/y in February with identical day down 7.zero% m/m regardless of a really robust USD/CAD within the month.

This text was written by Adam Button at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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