ECB's Vujčić: Market bets on three price cuts aren’t unreasonable

• Do not see a recession proper now, sees a gradual restoration
• Expects inflation, together with companies, to return down
• Have already got wage moderation, count on that to proceed
• March and April will probably be key for a clearer image on price path
• Tariff threats are an ideal supply of uncertainty
• However US tariffs will not instantly set off a 50 bps price lower

March is already a given, so I’d take it that he means the 2 extra price cuts after which might be a good evaluation. As issues stand, merchants are pricing in ~84 bps of price cuts for the yr – together with March. That matches with the present stability of dangers in play. But when Trump have been to go exhausting on his tariffs risk, I reckon we may see markets worth in additional draw back on charges; even when it’d simply be a kneejerk response.

This text was written by Justin Low at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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