5 eventualities to ponder for 2025

Clyde Russell at Reuters takes a have a look at a couple of eventualities for international markets in 2025 and the way they’ll play out. It is a good time to suppose via some completely different concepts, even should you disagree with a number of the takes right here. Not surprisingly, the record is dominated by the uncertainty of how Trump and Republicans will govern.

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1. Trump Higher Than Anticipated

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• Commerce threats yield concessions
• US financial system leads international development
• China recovers
• Peace offers reached
• Bullish: copper
• Bearish: oil, gasoline

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1. Trump Worse Than Feared

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• Main commerce obstacles erected
• World financial system suffers
• Larger inflation
• Bearish: copper, iron ore, oil, LNG
• Bond markets punish Treasuries

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1. China Restoration

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• Property/native govt cleanup succeeds
• Shopper spending rebounds
• New markets for inexperienced tech
• Bullish: copper, iron ore, LNG, coal
• Restricted oil impression because of EVs

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1. OPEC+ Fractures

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• Unity breaks below US manufacturing surge
• UAE could enhance output
• $75/bbl help threatened
• EV adoption pressures oil outlook

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1. Power Transition Ex-US

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• China floods market with low cost inexperienced tech
• US isolates itself
• World adoption accelerates
• Bullish: copper, lithium, minor metals, silver

This text was written by Adam Button at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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