GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE and US Election Uncertainty…

• The US economic system expanded by 2.eight%, beneath estimates of three.zero%. 

• The US reported dismal job progress in October.

• Market individuals will concentrate on the Financial institution of England coverage assembly.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast helps additional draw back with the looming BoE fee lower and the US presidential election. 

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The pound had a barely bearish week because the greenback fluctuated amid blended financial stories. The US economic system expanded by 2.eight%, beneath estimates of three.zero%. The weaker-than-expected financial efficiency quickly weighed on the greenback. 

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One other report on Thursday revealed that inflation accelerated by zero.three%, assembly forecasts. In the meantime, on Friday, the US reported dismal job progress. The economic system solely added 12,000 jobs in comparison with estimates of 106,000. In the meantime, the unemployment fee held regular at Four.1%. The greenback initially sunk however recovered earlier than the day ended as focus shifted to the upcoming presidential election. 

Subsequent week’s key occasions for GBP/USD

Subsequent week, market individuals will concentrate on the Financial institution of England coverage assembly on Thursday. In accordance with a Reuters ballot, the central financial institution will possible lower borrowing prices by 25-bps. Notably, inflation within the UK has eased beneath the two% goal, placing extra strain on policymakers to chop charges. Nonetheless, economists imagine this is likely to be the final fee lower for the 12 months. 

Equally, the Federal Reserve would possibly lower charges by 25-bps on the identical day. Latest information from the US has shifted the outlook for Fed fee cuts to a extra gradual tempo. However, market individuals will take note of messaging for future coverage strikes. Moreover, the US will launch information on preliminary jobless claims and nonfarm productiveness. 

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Decrease low strengthens bearish bias

On the technical aspect, the GBP/USD worth has damaged beneath and retested the 1.3002 key stage. With this transfer, bears have confirmed a brand new downtrend by breaking beneath the earlier low to make a decrease low. The reversal began on the 1.3400 resistance stage. Right here, the worth began making sturdy bearish candles, which later punctured the 22-SMA assist and the bullish trendline. 

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At present, GBP/USD is bouncing decrease after retesting the 1.3002 stage. The worth has pushed beneath the SMA, and the RSI is in bearish territory. Within the coming week, bears will goal the 1.2701 assist stage. Furthermore, the bearish bias will stay if the worth stays beneath the SMA and the RSI beneath 50. 

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