Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: Sub-140 in View Amid Tariff Fears and BoJ Fee Bets…

Economists anticipate preliminary jobless claims to extend from 223okay (week ending April 5) to 224okay (week ending April 12).

A pointy improve above 250okay might drive hypothesis a couple of US recession, probably supporting a extra dovish Fed stance. Conversely, an surprising drop might dampen expectations for an H1 2025 Fed fee minimize.

Past the information, FOMC members’ commentary might give insights into the Fed’s coverage stance and views on tariffs.

Potential Value Situations:

• Bullish US Greenback Situation: Easing commerce tensions, stronger retail gross sales, decrease jobless claims, or hawkish Fed rhetoric might drive USD/JPY towards 150.
• Bearish US Greenback Situation: An escalating commerce conflict, larger claims, softer retail gross sales, or dovish Fed chatter might push USD/JPY beneath 140.

Quick-term Forecast:

USD/JPY traits this week will hinge on:

• Commerce developments.
• Japan’s commerce and inflation information.
• US retail gross sales and jobless claims.

USD/JPY Value Motion

Each day Chart

On the every day chart, the USD/JPY stays beneath the 50-day and the 200-day EMAs, signaling bearish momentum.

A break above 145 might sign a transfer towards the 149.358 resistance stage. A sustained climb above 149.358 might convey the 50-day EMA into play.

Conversely, a transfer beneath final week’s low of 142.048 might expose the September 2024 low of 139.576