NASDAQ 100 – Is the Present Rally Only a Bounce or a New Bull Run?…

The April 9 rally was more than likely inexperienced W-1/a, and the next seven days to this Monday’s low had been inexperienced W-2/b. Now, the inexperienced W-Three/c must be underway to ideally ~$21,400. Since Three^rd and C-waves comprise 5 waves, we count on it to subdivide into the 5 gray waves i-ii-iii-iv-v as proven. Nevertheless, we should see a breakout above the April 9 excessive (dotted inexperienced horizontal line) to verify this path.

Three versus 5

This brings us to the following problem. As we identified in our final replace,

“… monetary markets are stochastic and probabilistic, i.e., they comply with if-then situations, and thus, those that search certainty won’t ever cease looking; we can’t but ensure which path the index will take.”

Thus, we can’t know at this stage if we are going to get 5 (inexperienced) waves up (1-5) or solely three (a-b-c). Therefore, why should we label the present advance 1/a, 2/b, Three/c, Four?, 5? As soon as the W-Three/c is accomplished, we are able to decide whether or not the Four-5 sequence will materialize primarily based on goal worth ranges. Nevertheless, as a result of current rallies since April eight, which overlapped with the early March (purple W-a) low, we all know that the decline from the February excessive into the April low was solely three waves: purple W-a, -b, and -c, and thus corrective. See Determine 2 under.