Some chatter about on the potential for AUD/USD to drop beneath zero.60

The background to anticipated additional AUD weak point is:

• declining inflation measures revealed earlier this week, with extra CPI knowledge due on January 29 (This fall)
• weak retail gross sales knowledge
• expectations of an rate of interest minimize by the Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) in February (assembly is on the 17th and 18th)
• considerations over U.S. tariffs beneath Trump
• potential sturdy U.S. payroll report (boosting the USD)
• China stimulus disappoints

Merchants are noting heightened FX possibility exercise (put choices with strikes at zero.60 and beneath, expiring in April, with over a notional billion AUD traded). If zero.6170 breaks demand for related put choices is prone to bounce.

• additionally, leveraged funds have elevated their quick AUD positions to 37,708 contracts, essentially the most bearish stance since March 2022 (CFTC knowledge).

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Weekly candles:

What do ForexLive merchants suppose? Bear development getting a bit lengthy within the tooth?

This text was written by Aaron Cutchburt at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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