Technically, the S&P 500 is on the brink between glory and catastrophe

After the sturdy rally triggered by Trump’s pause within the reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 hasn’t carried out a lot as the worth simply consolidated beneath a key resistance. The market has been ready for extra info on the negotiations entrance however as of now we’ve not acquired any, quite the opposite, a few disappointing headlines hit the danger sentiment.

I believe the market is eagerly ready for the primary commerce offers to be introduced to get a way of what might come subsequent and transfer based mostly on these expectations. The US Press Secretary Leavitt mentioned yesterday that some commerce offers are going to be introduced very quickly, so that can maintain everybody on the sting.

The important thing quantity, for my part, is 10%. That is what Fed’s Waller is taking a look at (and I suppose everybody else on the Fed). 10% on common can be “excellent news” for the market, whereas larger tariffs would probably be taken as a disappointment and due to this fact “dangerous information”.

Should you check out the worth chart, we are able to see that the market is “on the brink between glory and catastrophe” and that can probably be determined by the primary commerce offers (except issues escalate or de-escalate meaningfully in another manner).

On the weekly chart above, we are able to see that the S&P 500 bounced nearly completely from the important thing help across the 4805 stage the place we had a long run trendline and the 2022 excessive. If that help breaks, we might see far more ache out there and a recession can be assured.

On the each day chart, we are able to see that the sturdy rally triggered by the pause, stalled proper on the key resistance across the 5510 stage. That is the place the sellers stepped in with an outlined danger above the extent to place for an additional drop into the 4805 help. The patrons might want to break above that resistance to start out gaining extra conviction and a break above the downward trendline will probably affirm the resumption of the bullish development.

On the four hour chart, we now have two key close to time period help ranges to be careful for. The primary one is on the 5300 stage and the second across the 5150 stage. Dip-buyers will probably scale in round these ranges however a break beneath the 5150 stage would open the door for a fall in the direction of the 4805 help.

This text was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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