What the Canadian election this weekend means for CAD

That is through an ING notice:

• Canada holds a federal election on 28 April amid a fierce debate on the way to face Trump’s tariffs. Polls and betting odds undertaking that Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. This state of affairs is probably going priced in by markets, and may have a restricted short-term influence on CAD. A shock Conservative win may as an alternative set off a CAD rally
• Primarily based on newest polls, CBC initiatives Liberals will win 151-226 seats, with a central projection at 191, properly above the 170 absolute majority threshold. Conservatives are projected round 94-156 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 12-29 and the New Democrats Zero-18.

Re forecasts:

• Our USD/CAD projections at present embed a Liberal majority authorities as a baseline assumption.
• We anticipate the pair to commerce at 1.39 on the finish of 2Q, face some upside stress in 3Q earlier than beginning a extra structural downtrend from 4Q.

This text was written by Aaron Cutchburt at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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